A Multifaceted Analysis

Human Exposure to
Rising Temperatures

Four interconnected dimensions of the climate crisis — global temperature, atmospheric carbon, human heat exposure, and economic damage — each explored independently across the 21st century. Drag any timeline or use the master control to animate all dimensions in synchrony.

Data: NASA GISTEMP · NOAA GML · IPCC AR6 · Lancet Countdown  |  H Heuristics © 2025

Temperature Carbon Exposure Economic
2024
2000 2100

The master timeline synchronizes all four dimensions below. Each dimension also has its own independent control.

Global Temperature Anomaly
NASA GISTEMP v4 observations with IPCC SSP projections to 2100
2024
What this shows: Global mean surface temperature relative to the 1951–1980 baseline. Solid line shows observed warming; dashed lines show two futures — SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions, ~2.7°C by 2100) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions, ~4.4°C). The Paris Agreement thresholds of 1.5°C and 2.0°C are marked as reference lines. The divergence after 2050 represents one of the most consequential choices in human history.
Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration
NOAA GML measurements with IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathway projections
2024
What this shows: Atmospheric CO₂ concentration in parts per million, from ice core reconstructions and direct Mauna Loa Observatory measurements. Pre-industrial levels were ~280 ppm; we crossed 420 ppm in 2023 — a level not seen in at least 3 million years. The 350 ppm and 450 ppm reference lines mark key risk thresholds identified by climate science. Under SSP5-8.5, CO₂ could exceed 1,100 ppm by 2100.
Population Exposed to Extreme Heat
Millions of people facing wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 35°C for 15+ days per year
2024
What this shows: People exposed to extreme heat conditions where the human body cannot cool itself through sweating, even in shade with unlimited water. Stacked areas show the regional breakdown: South Asia bears the heaviest burden, followed by Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. By 2050, an estimated 2.6–3.5 billion people may face these conditions — regions that contributed least to cumulative emissions will suffer most.
Cumulative Economic Damage
Annual GDP loss from climate damages with cumulative costs in trillions USD
2024
What this shows: Climate damages as a percentage of global GDP, based on quadratic damage functions calibrated to IPCC AR6 WG2 and Burke et al. The bars show annual impact; the gold line tracks cumulative damages in trillions of USD. Under current trajectories, climate change imposes a growing, compounding drag on the global economy — potentially reaching 10–18% of GDP by 2100, dwarfing the investments needed for clean energy transition.

Why This Matters

Four dimensions, one interconnected crisis

The Physics

For every tonne of CO₂ emitted, the planet traps additional heat. Since 1880, global mean temperature has risen ~1.3°C. The rate of warming since 1970 is unprecedented in at least 2,000 years. The last time CO₂ exceeded 400 ppm (the Pliocene, ~3 million years ago), sea levels were 15–25 metres higher.

The Human Cost

Wet-bulb temperature (TW) combines heat and humidity. At TW ≥ 35°C, even a healthy person resting in shade with water will suffer heat stroke within hours. This threshold has already been breached in parts of South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and Mexico — decades earlier than models projected.

The Pathways

The divergence between SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 after 2050 is stark. Under the moderate scenario, emissions peak mid-century and warming limits to ~2.7°C. Under continued fossil dependence, warming reaches ~4.4°C. Every fraction of a degree means hundreds of millions fewer people facing lethal heat.

The Solutions

The technologies exist: rapid clean energy deployment, urban cooling, early warning systems, heat-resistant crops, adaptation finance. The challenge is diffusion — how fast proven solutions reach the populations that need them most. This is the central research question of H Heuristics.

Data Snapshot at Year 2024

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